Migration View on the Demographic Development of the Almaty City

Abstract

To characterize the demographic development of a particular region, it is necessary not only to determine population growth, but also to expand the subject area of statistical demography and conduct research to identify patterns of natural renewal of the structure of the age composition of the population. For the completeness of the study, methods of statistical and mathematical analysis were used. Official long-term statistical data for Almaty were collected and analyzed. A mathematical model was developed to determine the share of influence of each factor. It is substantiated that the demographic development of the city of Almaty cannot be characterized as a process of reproduction. Causeand-effect relationships of population growth from migration processes are revealed. It is noted that in the city of Almaty there were demographic phenomena typical for large cities of the modern world. It is substantiated that the growth of the population of Almaty does not have a positive impact on the demographic development of the country, but leads to negative consequences (high population density of the city, infrastructure, traffic jams, temporary labor migrants) of the development of the metropolis and the country as a whole. The significance of the results of the study lies in the recommendations for taking measures to limit the movement of internal migration in Almaty and aimed at natural demographic reproduction.