Migration networks, export shocks, and human capital acquisition: Evidence from China

Abstract

We examine the impact of export shocks proxied by destination countries’ tariffs on the post middle school enrollment of the rural population in China. We complement the literature by examining the across-region spillover effects of export shocks through initial migration networks. We find that the reduction of export tariffs at both the local and migration-destination prefectures significantly decreases post middle school enrollment of the 16–18 years old cohort, but the latter is stronger. Further analysis suggests that employment in the secondary industry rises significantly with the reduction of export tariffs, which improves job opportunities and thus increases the post middle school dropout rate.