Migration in Libya: A spatial network analysis

Abstract

Libya is the African country with the highest proportion of migrants and it is the major migration gateway to Europe. Since the fall of Gaddafi’s regime in 2011, Libya has been experiencing a prolonged period of instability and conflict which has also affected migration flows. This paper provides the first analytical study of the networks of irregular migrants toward, within, and from Libya since the beginning of the Second Civil War in 2014. We use longitudinal-geolocalised data on migrants’ movements and combine tools taken from spatial statistics and network analysis to reconstruct the network of migrants’ international movements towards and from Libya, and the network of migrants’ internal movements within Libya. Employing the information obtained from these networks, we map the different migrant routes within the country, we provide evidence that migrants sort into routes according to their nationality, and we show how these routes have evolved over time. Moreover, using a Separable Temporal Exponential Random Graph (STERG) model, we document that migrants are more likely to move towards areas with higher economic opportunities, lower level of conflict intensity, more same country-of-origin migrants, and connecting to multiple routes. Our analysis shows how to combine migration data with insights from spatial statistics and network analysis in order to reconstruct migrants’ movements.