Abstract
This study contrasts a publicly available measure of migration fears in the United States with a publicly available measure of geopolitical risk, a barometer of concern about possible disruptions to peace in international relations. The time series analyses performed on information spanning between 1990 and 2019 suggest that a change in migration fears in the U.S. increases the level of geopolitical risk, such that the U.S. appears to perceive migrants as potentially threatening and responds with an aggressive posture in interactions with other nations. The findings of the study are aligned with theories in existing academic literature about fear-induced aggression and intergroup conflict.
Highlights
Measuring the historical fluctuations about fears of a group can help us to learn more about the potential consequences of a rise in fear
Research Findings The findings of the time series analysis confirm the research hypothesis that prior change in the migration fear index predicts an increase in the geopolitical risk index
The results suggest a statistically significant increase to the geopolitical risk index following an increase to the U.S migration fear index
Summary
Measuring the historical fluctuations about fears of a group can help us to learn more about the potential consequences of a rise in fear. When individuals are repeatedly exposed to patterns of stimuli that are considered threatening, people will develop adaptive behaviors to avoid or cope with the perceived threat (Adolphs, 2013). Fear-induced aggression has been listed as one of seven unique types of aggression in a review of the scholarly literature, with territorial, instrumental, maternal, intermale, predatory, and irritable forms of aggression being the other commonly seen types (Popova, 2006) In those instances where many within a country fear migrants and believe they are a threat to their personal survival and/or the survival of the country, a potential reaction is more aggressive behavior toward migrants, as well as the specific country or countries in which migrants are moving from. Individuals can be fearful of a perceived influx of migrants because of an aversion to those that look physically different, beliefs that migrants are to blame for problems like unemployment or wage stagnation, or perhaps even a combination of aspects like these
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