Migration as conflict risk-management: testing the new economics of labour migration as a framework for understanding refugee decision-making

Abstract

ABSTRACT FitzGerald and Arar (2018. “The Sociology of Refugee Migration.” Annual Review of Sociology 44 (1): 387–406) suggest that adapting the New Economics of Labour Migration Theory (NELM) to include the risk of violence as another risk managed through migration could provide a framework to analyze refugee and ‘mixed migration’ decision-making. I use original data from a case study to evaluate this proposed theoretical extension. Drawing on interviews with 21 middle-class Iraqis who settled in the Greater Toronto area following the 2003 US-led invasion, I find that participants who entered Canada as both refugee and non-refugee migrants self-insured against risks to physical and socio-economic safety through migration. I argue that foregrounding state policies, which delineate the legal statuses available to potential migrants and their associated rights and obligations, improves NELM’s utility for explaining migration from conflict. By sampling on the country of origin, rather than destination country entry category, I show that host-state policies structure the risks of migration and, consequently, family risk-management decisions and mobility patterns. Additionally, those motivated to migrate due to violence can self-insure against these risks by negotiating legal status as a means to safety if they have the resources to meet restrictive policy requirements. Thus, this paper suggests that better-resourced migrants may be at an advantage when fleeing conflict.