Abstract
Synthetic estimation techniques are used to project the number of developmentally disabled persons in Florida in the year 2000. This yields an idea of the future number of these persons if migration continues at its current pace. Next, the population is projected on the assumption that no net migration occurs in the future and the same prevalence rates are applied to that projection. The difference in the number of persons with developmental disabilities yielded by the two sets of synthetic projections illustrates the effects of migration upon demand. Demand for developmental disabilities services is projected to increase by 36% over 1985 levels by the year 2000. Only 11% of the projected increase is due to reproductive change among persons already resident in Florida in 1985. The remainder is due to net migration into Florida. Because the movement of persons who are developmentally disabled seems to be part of a general stream of migration to Florida rather than a separate one, the demands placed upon the state's infrastructure to prevent deterioration of per capita service levels is affected by decisions made elsewhere and the state must largely react to changes in service demand created by population change rather than playing an active role in shaping it.
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