Migrant decision-making in a frontier landscape

Abstract

Across the tropics, rural farmers and livestock keepers use mobility as an adaptive livelihood strategy. Continued migration to and within frontier areas is widely viewed as a driver of environmental decline and biodiversity loss. Recent scholarship advances our understanding of migration decision-making in the context of changing climate and environments, and in doing so it highlights the variation in migration responses to primarily economic and environmental factors. Building on these insights, this letter investigates past and future migration decisions in a frontier landscape of Tanzania, East Africa. Combining field observations and household data within a multilevel modeling framework, the letter analyzes the explicit importance of social factors relative to economic and environmental factors in driving decisions to migrate or remain. Results indeed suggest that local community ties and non-local social networks drive both immobility and anticipated migration, respectively. In addition, positive interactions with local protected natural resource areas promote longer-term residence. Findings shed new light on how frontier areas transition to human dominated landscapes. This highlights critical links between migration behavior and the conservation of biodiversity and management of natural resources, as well as how migrants evolve to become integrated into communities.