Mid-Holocene hydroclimatic change and hurricane activity in Central America recorded by an Isla de Mona Stalagmite

Abstract

In recent years, Puerto Rico has been repeatedly hit by drought and hurricane, causing severe damage to the local society and economy. Therefore, understanding the region's climate variability and predicting extreme weather has become an important scientific problem. Cave stalagmites are widely recognized as high-quality terrestrial paleoclimate proxies due to their accurate dating and high resolution. In this study, we present a stalagmite-based multi-proxy reconstruction of hurricane and hydrological changes in Central America from the island of Isla de Mona, Puerto Rico, for the mid-Holocene period (4700–6260 a BP). Our data suggest a significant influence of solar activity on rainfall patterns in Central America via changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Our study further shows that El Niño may have played a role in influencing hurricane development at a decadal scale, and also found that the relationship of hurricane activities and El Niño intensity on the decadal and centennial scale is variable. The implications of our findings are crucial for informing contemporary climate models and enhancing our preparedness for potential future climate scenarios in the region.