Middle Power Foreign Policy in an Era of Gray Zone Conflict: Addressing the Challenges for Canada

Abstract

The erosion of the liberal international economic and political order, emergence of illiberal powers such as China, and a growing transatlantic rift, have reshaped international affairs. These tectonic shifts have also corresponded with the emergence of low-intensity protracted disputes, known as gray zone conflicts, in which great power rivalry between the United States and China is central. This chapter analyses Canada’s foreign policy options to navigate a global environment in which the concepts of ally and adversary are ambiguous. Using examples from the political, security, and economic policy domains, this chapter argues that an effective strategy for middle powers, such as Canada, to pursue its long-term interests in an era of gray zone conflict is through cooperation across “geopolitical axes.” This chapter focuses on the detention of Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou and restricted integration of Huawei 5G technology into the Canadian market as cases when short-term gains for Ottawa overruled long-term strategic foresight.KeywordsGrey-zone ConflictsHuawei 5G TechnologyLow IntensityGeopolitical Axes