Middle -- long Electric Power Load Forecasting Based on Co-integration and Support Vector Machine

Abstract

Middle - long forecasting of electric power is crucial to the electric investment, which is the guarantee of the healthy development of electric industry. There are so many factors which influence the middle-long electric power load. So in this paper the co-integration technology is used to analyze the influencing factors' inter characters, then a co- integration relating formula is found which is used to forecasting the middle-long electric power load, at last the support vector machine is used to correct the forecast error of the co-integrating method in order to improve the forecasting accuracy. The combined of the upper two methods can find out the long term equilibrium relationship and short term fluctuating relationship among the electric power load and other influencing factors, so the forecasting result become more sensible and scientific. A case showed that the proposed method is feasible and effective for middle- long electric power load forecasting.