Mid-to-long Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on ARIMA-BP Combined Model

Abstract

Background: Increasing the accuracy of the output power forecasting for wind power is helpful to the improvement of the reliability of power dispatching. Objective: This study aimed to improve the forecasting accuracy of mid-to-long term wind power. Methods: A mid-to-long term wind power forecasting based on ARIMA-BP combined model was proposed. The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was used to decompose the historical wind power series and obtain the Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) and residual components, thereby obtaining more regular components. Then, the optimum feature set was obtained based on the minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRAR) to improve the prediction accuracy for feature extraction. After that, the high-frequency components were predicted using the Back Propagation (BP) neural network model, while the low-frequency components were predicted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). Finally, the predicted components obtained were superimposed to deduce the final mid- and long-term wind power prediction results. Results: An analysis was conducted according to the actual data from a typical wind farm. After comparison, it was found that, after empirical mode decomposition and feature extraction analysis, the error of the intelligent combination algorithm based on the ARIMA-BP combined model was smaller than that using only the BP neural network or only the ARIMA. Conclusion: By means of actual data analysis, the effectiveness of the method proposed by the study for mid- and long-term wind power prediction was verified.