Microsimulation of low carbon urban transport policies in Beijing

Abstract

This study uses microsimulation modelling to simulate the carbon emissions from daily travel in Beijing and evaluate the effects of key low carbon transport polices in Beijing in 2025. Four key low carbon transport polices are selected, including the public transport improvement policy, public bike policy, energy efficiency improvement policy, and electric vehicle development policy. We found that under the combined effects of public transport improvement, public bike development, energy efficiency improvement, and electric vehicle development, the carbon emission in daily travel can be reduced by 43% in Beijing, which amounts to 4.3 million tonnes of CO2 per year. The public transport improvement and public bike development can be realized under the current technology status, and if these two policies are combined, the emission reduction is 24%, which is higher than the energy efficiency improvement scenario. Electric vehicle ownership in 2025 in Beijing will increase to 1.04 million under enhanced scenario, accounting for 18.4% of total vehicles. Compared with baseline scenario, under enhanced scenario not only consumers who want to purchase additional vehicles, but also consumers who want to replace existing vehicles are attracted to buy additional vehicles.