Microsimulation Model to Compare Enteral and Parenteral Iron Supplementation in Children With Intestinal Failure.

Abstract

Children with chronic intestinal failure have a high prevalence of anemia, commonly from iron deficiency, leading to frequent blood transfusions. No current guideline exists for iron supplementation in these children. In this analysis, we evaluate the effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of using parenteral, enteral, and no iron supplementation to reduce blood transfusions. We created a microsimulation model of pediatric intestinal failure over a 1-year time horizon. Model outcomes included cost (US dollars), blood transfusions received, and hemoglobin trend. Strategies tested included no supplementation, daily enteral supplementation, and monthly parenteral supplementation. We estimated parameters for the model using an institutional cohort of 55 patients. Model parameters updated each 1-month cycle using 2 regressions. A multivariate mixed-effects linear regression estimated hemoglobin values at the next month based on data from the prior month. A mixed-effects logistic regression on hemoglobin predicted the probability of receiving a blood transfusion in a given month. Compared with no supplementation, both enteral and parenteral iron supplementation reduced blood transfusions required per patient by 0.3 and 0.5 transfusions per year, respectively. Enteral iron cost $34 per avoided blood transfusion. Parenteral iron cost an additional $6600 per avoided blood transfusion compared with enteral iron. We found both parenteral and enteral iron to be effective at reducing blood transfusions. The cost of enteral iron makes it the desired choice in patients who can tolerate it. Future work should aim to identify which subpopulations of patients may benefit most from one strategy over the other.