Micro‐macro dynamics of the online opinion evolution: An asynchronous network model approach

Abstract

SummaryThis article investigates the complex relationship between endogenous and exogenous, deterministic and stochastic stimulating factors in public opinion dynamics. An asynchronous multiagent network model is proposed to explore the interaction mechanism between individual opinions and the public opinion in online multiagent network community, including both the micro and the macro patterns of opinion evolution. In addition, based on random network models, a novel algorithm is provided for opinion evolution prediction. The model property analysis and numerical experiments show that the proposed asynchronous multiagent network model can assimilate and explain some interesting phenomena that are observed in the real world. Further case studies with numerical simulation and real‐world applications confirm the feasibility and flexibility of the proposed model in public opinion analysis. The results challenge the common perception that mass media or opinion facilitators play the fundamental role in controlling the development trends of public opinion. This study shows that the formation and evolution of public opinion in the presence of opinion leaders depend also on an individual's emotional inertia and conformity pressures from peers in the same topic group.