Abstract
Using the von Neumann-Morgenstern approach to the theory of decision making under uncertainty, this paper shows that a broad decline in mortality rates should lead parents to substitute children for other goods and durable quality attributes of children for quantity of children. Further, if quantity is interpreted as survivors to maturity, the demographic transition--a sufficient decline in birth rates to reestablish a low population growth rate--will occur only if the substitution of quality for quantity outweighs the substitution of quantity for other goods.
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