Abstract
A primary hurdle in observing small foreshocks is the detection-limit of most seismic networks, which is typically about magnitude M1-1.5. We show that a start-up test of a borehole-based seismic network with a much lower detection limit overcame this problem for an Mw4.2 earthquake. This earthquake occurred offshore of Istanbul, Turkey, on a fault system that is likely to rupture in an M > 7 event in the coming decades. In the three days before and two after, a total of 62 or more earthquakes, including at least 18 foreshocks, came from the mainshock source area. The signal similarity of the foreshocks shows a clear increase during the hours before the Mw4.2 mainshock. Similar foreshock sequences have recently been reported for a few well monitored M > 7 plate-boundary earthquakes. The sequence surrounding the Mw4.2 gives the impression of stochastic failures that ended up interactively unloading stress concentrations. The Mw4.2 mainshock then resulted from the accumulated release of significantly smaller events, as suggested by other field and laboratory studies.
Highlights
A persistent question in seismology has been whether hazardous earthquakes show any kind of characteristic preparation process prior to their rupture initiation[1]
We report on a 61-event microearthquake sequence surrounding an Mw4.2 earthquake
The sequence was observed during a fortuitous 5-day startup test of the TESV borehole seismic station. These earthquakes occurred along the offshore Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in northwestern Turkey
Summary
We show that a start-up test of a borehole-based seismic network with a much lower detection limit overcame this problem for an Mw4.2 earthquake This earthquake occurred offshore of Istanbul, Turkey, on a fault system that is likely to rupture in an M > 7 event in the coming decades. A plethora of laboratory rock deformation experiments, for example, are known to show sequences of much smaller failures preceding a through-going rupture[2,3] These laboratory tests showed that shortly before failure the spatial correlation of small failures increased significantly[4]. The sequence was observed during a fortuitous 5-day startup test of the TESV borehole seismic station These earthquakes occurred along the offshore Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in northwestern Turkey. Calculating running averages of the cross-correlation coefficients shows a well-defined increase during the hours before the mainshock – reminiscent of the lab results referred to above
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