Microcycles of Terrorist Violence in Turkey: a Spatio-temporal Analysis of the PKK Attacks

Abstract

Geography and time are the two constraints on illegal acts. The extant research on terrorism suggests that terrorists make an expected cost-benefit analysis, and thus make bounded, rational choices regarding their attacks. They carry out attacks that are likely to benefit their organizational goals, and they commit attacks choosing the easiest way with the least effort. This assumption leads to the conclusion that their attacks are likely to be clustered over space and time, and hence predictable. The purpose of this study is to examine whether the attacks of the PKK—a separatist terrorist organization—form microcycles in Turkey. In this study, we use the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) to examine 1261 terrorist attacks of which locations are known and attributed to the PKK. Our research findings suggest significant evidence to conclude that a pattern exists over both space and time regarding distribution of the terrorist attacks. Results from our logistic regression model demonstrate that non-lethal attacks or those occurring in Istanbul or Ankara are more likely to be contagious. We argue that our research findings and policy implications could be useful to create more effective terrorism prevention strategies and policies.