Microbial Dose-Response Curves and Disinfection Efficacy Models Revisited

Abstract

The same term “dose-response curve” describes the relationship between the number of ingested microbes or their logarithm, and the probability of acute illness or death (type I), and between a disinfectant’s dose and the targeted microbe’s survival ratio (type II), akin to survival curves in thermal and non-thermal inactivation kinetics. The most common model of type I curves is the cumulative form of the beta-Poisson distribution which is sometimes indistinguishable from the lognormal or Weibull distribution. The most notable survival kinetics models in static disinfection are of the Chick-Watson-Hom’s kind. Their published dynamic versions, however, should be viewed with caution. A microbe population’s type II dose-response curve, static and dynamic, can be viewed as expressing an underlying spectrum of individual vulnerabilities (or resistances) to the particular disinfectant. Therefore, such a curve can be described mathematically by the flexible Weibull distribution, whose scale parameter is a function of the disinfectant’s intensity, temperature, and other factors. But where the survival ratio’s drop is so steep that the static dose-response curve resembles a step function, the Fermi distribution function becomes a suitable substitute. The utility of the CT (or Ct) concept primarily used in water disinfection is challenged on theoretical grounds and its limitations highlighted. It is suggested that stochastic models of microbial inactivation could be used to link the fates of individual viruses or bacteria to their manifestation in the survival curve’s shape. Although the emphasis is on viruses and bacteria, most of the discussion is relevant to fungi, protozoa, and perhaps worms too.