Micro-Foundations of the Vanguard: The Origins of Revolutionary Leftist Rebel Groups

Abstract

What explains the emergence of leftist national liberation rebel groups? I present one causal pathway that unfolded in the early-to-mid-20th century and involved out-group individuals uprooting to imperial metropoles for assimilatory education programs. Once there, out-group individuals experienced discrimination by in-group members of the empire. Discriminatory experiences by imperial in-group members, despite out-group expectations of similar privileges, prompted a series of psychological and behavioral responses that made out-group individuals more likely to accept national liberation—independence and social revolution—as a political goal and adopt leftist ideologies while forming cohesive bonds with other out-group individuals and participating in political agitation. The combination of psychological and behavioral responses resulted in a cohesive, experienced and relatively well-equipped vanguard seeking leftist national liberation. Exploiting as-if random variation in educational experiences of rebel leaders in Eritrea’s Independence War, I quantitatively and qualitatively test mechanisms using archival and primary materials and an original dataset. Results are robust to multiple specifications including out-of-sample qualitative tests that include archival data from four countries. The project illustrates the formation of a highly consequential type of insurgency with implications for the formation of revolutionary jihadist groups.