MGTCF: Multi-Generator Tropical Cyclone Forecasting with Heterogeneous Meteorological Data

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) plays a critical role in the prevention and defense of TC disasters. We must explore a more accurate method for TC prediction. Deep learning methods are increasingly being implemented to make TC prediction more accurate. However, most existing methods lack a generic framework for adapting heterogeneous meteorological data and do not focus on the importance of the environment. Therefore, we propose a Multi-Generator Tropical Cyclone Forecasting model (MGTCF), a generic, extensible, multi-modal TC prediction model with the key modules of Generator Chooser Network (GC-Net) and Environment Net (Env-Net). The proposed method can utilize heterogeneous meteorologic data efficiently and mine environmental factors. In addition, the Multi-generator with Generator Chooser Net is proposed to tackle the drawbacks of single-generator TC prediction methods: the prediction of undesired out-of-distribution samples and the problems stemming from insufficient learning ability. To prove the effectiveness of MGTCF, we conduct extensive experiments on the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset. MGTCF obtains better performance compared with other deep learning methods and outperforms the official prediction method of the China Central Meteorological Observatory in most indexes.