Mexico’s electricity grid and fuel mix: implications of a fifteen-year planning horizon on emissions and air quality

Abstract

Energy reform that required amendments to the Mexican Constitution in 2013 and implementing legislation aimed to increase the efficiency, economic competitiveness, and decarbonization of Mexico’s electricity sector. Emissions inventories were developed for the 2016 base year and a capacity development pathway established by Mexico over a 15-year planning horizon to 2031. Between 2016 and 2031, steep declines in generation from fuel oil-fired thermoelectric, turbogas, and coal plants in favor of a buildout of natural gas combined cycle and clean energy technologies were predicted to drive reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) of 68%, 61%, 13% and 7%, respectively, with an increase in carbon monoxide (CO) of 4%. Retirement of fuel oil-fired thermoelectric and coal generation contributed to substantial reductions in 24 h average PM2.5 concentrations in Mexican and U.S. border states even with rising demand. In contrast, little change in maximum daily average eight-hour ozone concentrations was predicted with expansion of natural gas combined cycle generation, which is a source of NO x and CO. Mexico’s electricity sector planning process has been highly dynamic since the reform. Insights indicate how changes in national strategies could affect emissions and air quality outcomes.