Mexico in Danger of Becoming a Collapsed State. Reality or Exaggeration?

Abstract

More than 55,000 people were killed in Mexico’s vicious drug wars between 2006 and 2011. The Pentagon’s Joint Operating Environment Paper 2008 speculated that the country was one of two major states at risk of rapid and sudden collapse. This paper investigates the causes of state failure and the extent to which these are present in Mexico today as a result of corruption and violent, lucrative transnational organised crime. It explains the mutual dependency between the two and shows how deeply entrenched and extensive their power and influence have become at all levels of government and in key state institutions. It examines progress in the National Security Strategy and the impact of crime and corruption on key strategic measures of success. It concludes that the Pentagon’s failure to understand the nature of the conflict led to a gross overstatement of the risk to the country. It also demonstrates, however, that crime and corruption threaten the transitional democracy that has emerged in Mexico since the turn of the century. Finally, it raises questions regarding the reliability and general applicability of some theories of state failure, state legitimacy and civil-military relations.