Metrics of Mobility: Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Travel Behavior.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted typical travel behavior worldwide. In the United States (U.S.), government entities took action to limit its spread through public health messaging to encourage reduced mobility and thus reduce the spread of the virus. Within statewide responses to COVID-19, however, there were different responses locally. Likely some of these variations were a result of individual attitudes toward the government and health messaging, but there is also likely a portion of the effects that were because of the character of the communities. In this research, we summarize county-level characteristics that are known to affect travel behavior for 404 counties in the U.S., and we investigate correlates of mobility between April and September (2020). We do this through application of three metrics that are derived via changepoint analysis-initial post-disruption mobility index, changepoint on restoration of a "new normal," and recovered mobility index. We find that variables for employment sectors are significantly correlated and had large effects on mobility during the pandemic. The state dummy variables are significant, suggesting that counties within the same state behaved more similarly to one another than to counties in different states. Our findings indicate that few travel characteristics that typically correlate with travel behavior are related to pandemic mobility, and that the number of COVID-19 cases may not be correlated with mobility outcomes.