Abstract
Paddy is one of the staple food crops that almost all Indonesians consume every day. Central Java Province is one of the national food buffer provinces, therefore a model is needed to predict the amount of paddy production in Central Java Province for the future. The amount of paddy production in Central Java Province is not constant and fluctuates every year, so the one-parameter Triple Exponential Smoothing model of the Brown type is used to predict the amount of paddy production in Central Java Province. Based on the results of the analysis of the data, it was obtained that the one-parameter Triple Exponential Smoothing model of the Brown type which is appropriate to be used to predict the amount of paddy production in Central Java Province is F28+m=9485520,31-536660,01(m)+(0,5)(-91215,38)(m2), where the number of periods from 1 to 5.
Highlights
Province is not constant and fluctuates every year
The best forecasting model to predict the amount of rice production in Central Java Province using the oneparameter Triple Exponential Smoothing method of the Brown type is
The model is obtained by using the alpha value of 0.35 and results a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 4.487%
Summary
Indonesia merupakan negara agraris yang sebagian besar penduduknya menggantungkan hidupnya pada sektor pertanian serta menjadikannya sebagai sumber mata pencaharian. Berdasarkan uraian latar belakang, rumusan masalah yang akan diselesaikan dalam penelitian ini adalah bagaimana model peramalan produksi padi di Provinsi Jawa Tengah dengan menggunakan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing tipe Brown. Peramalan jumlah produksi padi di Provinsi Jawa Tengah dengan metode pemulusan eksponensial tripel (triple exponential smoothing) tipe Brown dimulai dengan mencari nilai rata-rata dari data, dengan persamaan sebagai berikut (Sari et al, 2018): N x Xt t 1 dengan. Berdasarkan analisis data produksi padi Jawa Tengah tahun 1993 sampai 2020 menggunakan software Minitab 19, nilai MAPE, MAD, dan MSD bernilai minimum pada analisis trend kuadratik, dapat dilihat pada gambar berikut. Berdasarkan grafik dapat dilihat bahwa data berjenis trend kuadratik naik, sehingga metode peramalan yang cocok digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah produksi padi di Jawa Tengah adalah metode pemulusan eksponensial tripel satu parameter tipe Brown.
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