Abstract
Indonesia is an archipelagic country where 2/3 of its territory is ocean. The vastness of Indonesia's oceans is expected to produce abundant sea products that can meet the needs of Indonesian consumers, especially fish. Adequacy of the amount of fish consumption can be assessed through the number of fish catch. Based on data at the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries in 2015, West Java has a low growth of fish consumption, 6.05% in 2010-2014. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the results of fish catch for several years ahead so it can be known whether the provision of fish consumption will be fulfilled or not. One method that can be used is Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). The SSA method is a flexible method because it uses a nonparametric approach. That is, in its application, this method does not require the model specification of time series data, as well as parametric assumptions. Forecasting accuracy of a method is said to be good if it has a MAPE value less than 20%. MAPE of SSA method forecast is 6.19% so that SSA method is suitable for forecasting of capture fishery production in West Java Province. The forecast for fishery production in West Java Province in 2015 for the first, second, third, and fourth quarter were 53,978.49 Ton, 54,406.91 Ton, 50,889.11 Ton, and 56,896.96 Ton, respectively.
Highlights
Indonesia is an archipelagic country where 2/3 of its territory is ocean
It is necessary to forecast the results of fish catch for several years ahead so it can be known whether the provision of fish consumption will be fulfilled or not
The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method is a flexible method because it uses a nonparametric approach
Summary
Indonesia merupakan negara kepulauan dimana 2/3 wilayahnya merupakan lautan. Daerah lautan Indonesia yang luas diharapkan dapat menghasilkan hasil laut yang sangat berlimpah sehingga dapat memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat Indonesia dalam mengkonsumsi hasil laut khususnya ikan. Berdasarkan data Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan pada tahun 2015, Jawa Barat merupakan salah satu provinsi yang memiliki pertumbuhan penyediaan konsumsi ikan yang rendah yaitu 6.05% dari tahun 2010 – 2014. Perlu dilakukan peramalan terhadap hasil tangkap ikan di Provinsi Jawa Barat di tahun-tahun berikutnya sehingga dapat diketahui apakah ketersediaan ikan akan memenuhi kebutuhan konsumsi masyarakat atau tidak. Salah satu metode yang dapat digunakan adalah metode Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Dalam pengaplikasiannya, metode ini tidak membutuhkan spesifikasi model dari data deret waktu, serta asumsi-asumsi parametric, sehingga diharapkan metode SSA dapat memberikan hasil peramalan yang akurat. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang diambil dari Dinas Perikanan dan Kelautan Provinsi Jawa Barat dari kuartal satu tahun 2004 sampai dengan kuartal empat tahun 2014.
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