Methods of rapid orbit forecasting after maneuvers for geostationary satellites

Abstract

A geostationary (GEO) satellite may serve as a navigation satellite, but there is a problem that maneuvers frequently occur and the forces are difficult to model. Based on the technique of determining satellite orbits by transfer, a predicted orbit with high accuracy may be achieved by the method of statistical orbit determination in case of no maneuver force. The predicted orbit will soon be invalid after the maneuver starts, and it takes a long time to get a valid orbit after the maneuver ends. In order to improve ephemeris usability, the method of rapid orbit forecasting after maneuvers is studied. First, GEO satellite movement is analyzed in case of maneuvers based on the observation from the orbit measurement system by transfer. Then when a GEO satellite is in the free status just after maneuvers, the short arc observation is used to forecast the orbit. It is assumed that the common system bias and biases of each station are constant, which can be obtained from orbit determination with long arc observations. In this way, only 6 orbit elements would be solved by the method of statistical orbit determination, and the ephemeris with high accuracy may be soon obtained. Actual orbit forecasting with short arc observation for SINOSAT-1 satellite shows that, with the tracking network available, the precision of the predicted orbit (RMS of O-C) can reach about 5 m with 15 min arc observation, and about 3 m with 30 min arc observation.