Methods of forecasting VAT revenues for the state budget of Ukraine

Abstract

VAT is the main indirect tax in Ukraine, among other countries, providing one of the largest items of state budget revenues. The presence of the VAT refund procedure and the need to cover public spending with the revenues from VAT administration require that an effective method of planning and forecasting VAT revenues for the new fiscal year be used. The purpose of the article was to analyze the effectiveness of two methods of forecasting of VAT revenues, such as the moving average method and the method of correlation and regression. This was done by analysing the effectiveness of forecasts made for previous years and comparing them with actual data to make the forecast of VAT revenues using these methods for 2014–2016 years and identifying the main causes of problems in the forecasting process. The results show that the forecasts based on two methods (correlation and regression analysis and double moving average) are sufficiently accurate. After making certain adjustments, these methods can be used at the national level.