METHODS OF DIAGNOSIS AND FORECASTING OF CRISIS AND BANKRUPTCY OF THE ENTERPRISE

Abstract

The article examines the application of methods for diagnosing and predicting the crisis and bankruptcy of the enterprise. An analysis of theoretical approaches to the definition of "crisis diagnosis of the enterprise", which showed that today among experts there is no consensus on understanding the essence of the definition. The analysis of methodological approaches to assessing the degree of insolvency of the enterprise revealed three possible states of insolvency: current, critical and supercritical. The analysis showed that if the company is located at the beginning and end of the reporting period has signs of insolvency, it can be legally considered a debtor. In order to predict the possibility of current insolvency, it is proposed to use a rapid analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise, which should be carried out using the Beaver coefficient. Systematization of methods used to predict the crisis and the threat of bankruptcy has allowed to group existing methods and approaches on certain grounds into groups, namely: the status of the methodological approach, information support, functional direction (research direction), the method of forming indicators. , by the method of research of estimation indicators, by the method of formation of the generalizing conclusion, by the technology of information processing. On the basis of the analysis the comparative characteristic of the most widespread models of definition of probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise for each of which their advantages and lacks are defined is offered. The most common mathematical models for predicting the bankruptcy of the enterprise are analyzed and the criteria for their application are given. The considered models, the revealed shortcomings and advantages and the revealed possibilities of their use allow to draw a conclusion that in Ukraine without modification and adaptation their effective use is practically impossible. The implementation of the outlined measures makes it possible to develop a model for diagnosing the crisis of enterprises in the market environment of Ukraine, which will be the next stage of the study.