Methods of decision-making for the transportation of combined consignments in conditions of uncertainty

Abstract

The shipment of combined consignments is presented in the form of a decision-making task in the context of uncertainty caused by a significant number of facilities and elements in the transport system involved in the movement of goods. All variables for calculations in a given task are evaluated and entered by the transport organizer under the same state of objective conditions (object). In organizing transport the forwarding agent follows the experience of previous shipments with some degree of accuracy and assumes the result of each of the available alternatives to solutions. In many cases, the forwarding agent is forced to use a significant information array according to the working conditions of the transport modes and can only indicate many of all those pairs of outcomes for which the first outcome in the pair is preferable to the second. Besides, there are no numerical estimates of the outcomes until the completion of the shipment itself. In case of multi-criterion outcome estimates, significantly more complex mathematical models of the choice situation arise than in the single-criterion case. However, the forwarding agent may choose an alternative based on the calculation of a generalized value satisfying the limitations of the unwinding shipment.