Abstract

 
 
 
 The method of Markov’s processes for the analysis of systems with constant bounce and recovery intensities considered. The article presents calculations of the failure probability of the system for describing the various cases of redundancy of its components using Markov’s models. Expressions obtained for calculating the approximate value of the failure probability of the system and analyzed of failures to improve the reliability of the system. The Markov’s graph of transitions in the reservation of the system, which reflects its behavior, described. Analysis of the results of numerical solution of systems shows that when loaded with redundancy, the probability of failure is higher than with partially loaded, and with partially loaded - higher than with unloaded backup. A tree of errors for the system of cooling and clearing of flue gas at the reservation made by replacing "2 of 3", which has seven minimum bounce cross sections. Calculated the probability of system failure. The obtained calculations allow to analyze failures of technical systems in order to increase the reliability of their functioning.
 
 
 
Highlights
A scientific approach to safety concerns requires a comprehensive analysis and classification of man-made accidents, major environmental and environmental factors, environmental behavior and personnel actions
The choice of the method of reliability analysis of renewable redundant systems is largely determined by the class of the constructed reliability model
Methods of probability calculation, methods of theory of Markov random processes, as well as methods based on the addition of differential equations are used
Summary
Senior teacher Anna Zavgorodnya, PhD, associate professor Valerii Zavgorodnii, Master of Engineering Vladyslav Plisenko, Master of Engineering Nikita Provatorov, Master of Engineering Pavlo Kudientsov. Kyiv, Department of Information Technologies, State University of Infrastructure and Technologies. KEYWORDS reliability theory, Markov’s model, failure rate, recovery rate, Markov’s transition graph, redundancy
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