Methods for the Integrated Reliability Analysis of Heat Supply

Abstract

A methodical approach to the integrated reliability analysis of heat supply is proposed. The approach involves considering the entire process flow: from the extraction and transportation of fuel to the generation and trans- mission of heat. Mathematical models and methods for the quantitative evaluation of the reliability of heat supply to each consumer are presented. The influence of various components of the heat supply system on its reliability is studied. Technological Structure of the Heat-Supply Complex (HSC) and Starting Points for the Analysis of Its Reliabil- ity. The technological interrelationship, continuity, and inter- action of the internal and external factors of the extraction and delivery of fuel and the generation, transmission, and consumption of heat necessitate an integrated analysis of the reliability of heat supply to consumers. It involves modeling, calculation, and analysis of the heat generation and distribu- tion process flow. The aggregation of processes allows repre- senting them as two relatively independent systems: (i) fuel- supply system (FSS) consisting of fuel-extraction subsystem (FES) and fuel-transportation subsystem (FTS) and (ii) heat- supply system (HSS) consisting of heat sources (HSs) and heating networks (HNs). They constitute a heat-supply com- plex (HSC). Its outline flowchart is shown in Fig. 1. The primary task of the integrated analysis of the reli- ability of heat supply to HSC consumers (or the reliability of the HSC) is to evaluate the integrated effect of all compo- nents of the HSC on heat-supply reliability and the effect of each of the components. This is a methodical challenge be- cause it is necessary to make well-founded reliability assess- ments and to accomplish many auxiliary tasks such as acqui- sition and processing of data on the properties of components of the system, evaluation of the effect of external factors on the performances of the HSC subsystems, formulation of regulatory requirements, etc. Many of these issues are sub- jects of separate studies, but the methodical principles out- lined below provide a basis for their formulation and resolu- tion.