Abstract
Every year, numerous field teams travel to remote field locations on the Greenland ice sheet to carry out polar research, geologic exploration, and other commercial, military, strategic, and recreational activities. In this region, extreme weather can lead to decreased productivity, equipment failure, increased stress, unexpected logistical challenges, and, in the worst cases, a risk of physical injury and loss of life. Here we describe methods for calculating the probability of a “scienceable” day defined as a day when wind, temperature, snowfall, and sunlight conditions are conducive to sustained outdoor activity. Scienceable days have been calculated for six sites on the ice sheet of southern Greenland using meteorological station data between 1996-2016, and compared with indices of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns: the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our findings show that the probability of a scienceable day between 2010 and 2016 in the Greenland Ice Sheet’s accumulation zone was 46$±17% in March-May and 86±11% in July-August on average. Decreases in scienceability due to lower temperatures at higher elevations are made up for by weaker katabatic winds, especially in the shoulder seasons. We also find a strong correlation between the probability of a scienceable day and GBI (R=0.88, p<0.001) resulting in a significant decrease in April scienceability since 1996. The methodology presented can help inform expedition planning, the setting of realistic field goals and managing expectations, and aid with accurate risk assessment in Greenland and other harsh, remote environments.
Highlights
Greenland is prone to intense and dangerous storm events
We demonstrate the methodology by investigating meteorological data collected at six different sites in the accumulation zone of southern Greenland, an area often visited by scientific expeditions
2 m air temperatures dropped as low as −59◦C and exceeded 0◦C for only 1% of the study period at DYE-2
Summary
Greenland is prone to intense and dangerous storm events. Extreme events such as the mature lee cyclones which cause hurricane force winds and extensive icing were observed in 2007 (Innes et al, 2009) and katabatic winds (locally known as piteraqs) as high as 90 m s−1 were observed in 1970 (Oltmanns et al, 2014). Strong orographic effects exacerbate windy conditions contributing to tip jet and barrier flows that frequently exceed 25 m s−1 (Moore and Renfrew, 2005). Annual mean temperature is strongly tied to elevation, reaching −19◦C at 2022 m.a.s.l. and multiple weather. Scienceability stations recording February mean temperature below −40◦C (Steffen and Box, 2001). Frequent harsh conditions make the margin of error in dealing with weather related hazards exceptionally large. There is a significant lack of research on the risks associated with poor weather conditions
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