Abstract

Assessing the nonlethal effects of disturbance and their population-level consequences is a significant ecological and conservation challenge, because it requires extensive baseline knowledge of behavioral patterns, life-history and demography. However, for many marine mammal populations, this knowledge is currently lacking and it may take decades to fill the gaps. During this time, undetected population declines may occur. In this study we identify methods that can be used to monitor populations subject to disturbance and provide insights into the processes through which disturbance may affect them. To identify and address the knowledge gaps highlighted above, we reviewed the literature to identify suitable response variables and methods for monitoring these variables. We also used existing models of the population consequences of disturbance (PCoD) to identify demographic characteristics (e.g. the proportion of immature animals in the population, or the ratio of calves/pups to mature females) that may be strongly correlated with population status and therefore provide early warnings of future changes in abundance. These demographic characteristics can be monitored using established methods such as visual surveys combined with photogrammetry, and capture-recapture analysis. Individual health and physiological variables can also inform PCoD assessment and can be monitored using photogrammetry, remote tissue sampling, hands-on assessment and individual tracking. We then conducted a workshop to establish the relative utility and feasibility of all these approaches for different groups of marine mammal species. We describe how future marine mammal monitoring programs can be designed to inform population-level analysis.

Highlights

  • Investigating the sublethal effects of disturbance and their consequences at a populationlevel remains a significant ecological and conservation challenge

  • We review methods for monitoring such populations that can provide insights into the processes through which disturbance may affect health and vital rates. This review provides both a retrospective and prospective view of how appropriate monitoring methods might be selected for a given marine mammal population

  • We focus on six methods that have been applied to monitor marine mammal populations

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Summary

Introduction

Investigating the sublethal effects of disturbance and their consequences at a populationlevel remains a significant ecological and conservation challenge. Whilst there are well established methods – such as line-transect surveys for cetaceans (e.g., Wade and Gerrodette, 1993) or telemetrycorrected haulout counts for pinnipeds (e.g., Thompson and Harwood, 1990) - for estimating the size of marine mammal populations, these are expensive, in the case of cetacean populations. Monitoring programs based on these methods typically only have the power to detect large changes (Taylor et al, 2007; Jewell et al, 2012) It may take many years before changes in vital rates manifest themselves as changes in population size if a species is long-lived. There may, be merit in monitoring demographic characteristics (such as the age- or stage-structure of the population) and indicators of individual health that can provide an early warning of population level effects and help to identify some of the drivers of changes (National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine, 2017)

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