Methods for managing of hydrometeorological information in socio-economic systems under uncertainty

Abstract

Human economic and social activity is in constant interconnection with natural, including hydrometeorological conditions. Over the past decades, all countries of the world have been experiencing increasing economic and social losses from adverse weather and climate events. Modern production is becoming increasingly influenced by weather conditions, and this effect is actually equivalent to an increase in average and marginal production costs, which leads to higher production costs and lower profits. In such conditions, the development of ways of economically profitable application of hydrometeorological information in technological processes of various sectors of the economy becomes especially urgent. The development and implementation of economic and hydrometeorological models that allow the inclusion of hydrometeorological information in the process of making managerial decisions make it possible to effectively implement weather information in various areas of economic activity and significantly reduce costs due to the unfavorable influence of weather conditions. Since weather forecasts objectively have limited reliability, there are risks of inaccurate management decisions that have undesirable economic consequences. Effective use of information about the expected state of weather conditions allows you to adapt economic activities to adverse manifestations of the hydrometeorological environment and thereby reduce losses from unfavorable and dangerous weather conditions. The most important problem, the solution of which is largely devoted to scientific work, is the development of methodological approaches to support management decision-making using hydrometeorological information in conditions of uncertainty.