Methods for integrated energy security performance assessment as part of projection studies

Abstract

Subject. This article discusses the issues of development of the fuel and energy complex of Russia. Objectives. The article aims to substantiate the expediency and possibility of using complex indicators (indices) of energy security in predictive studies and determine the influence of various factors on the numerical values of these indicators. Methods. For the study, we used economic and mathematical models. Results. The article proposes methods for aggregating energy security indicators, including the sustainability index, designed to comprehensively characterize the economic aspect of energy security. It presents experimental calculations describing the influence of various factors on the numerical values of energy security indices. Conclusions. Numerical assessment of the energy security status through the considered complex indices can become an important component of the multi-criteria analysis of the fuel and energy complex' development. The composition of energy security indicators and the form of their generalization depend on the problem to be solved and the perspective under consideration.