Abstract
The analysis of seismic sequences is the primary objective for the study of the evolution of seismicity in a particular area, in order to determine a greater awareness of its seismogenic potential. The eventual determination of the epicenters of future earthquakes associated with the expected magnitude can be the tool to better seismic prevention. In this paper, we present some procedures for epicenter prediction of a strong earthquake, developed after a careful analysis of the fluctuations of latitude and longitude values in time and space and distance, between seismic events occurred in a specific area. By analyzing several seismic sequences, whose data have been taken from the numerous catalogs on seismicity, we noticed that the epicenters of the earthquakes that precede the strongest ones, tend to converge towards the epicenter where the strong earthquake will happen, following a pattern and a repetitive directional trend. Analysis of the pattern and trend, which represent the fluctuation of events and distances between pairs of earthquakes, has allowed us to localize the epicentral area of a future earthquake, which more reliably complements the other forecasting methods we have developed in the past. Retrospective tests performed on past seismic sequences have shown that the predictive procedures developed are able to identify in a simple way and in the short term, the area where a strong earthquake is most likely to occur.
Highlights
We present some procedures for epicenter prediction of a strong earthquake, developed after a careful analysis of the fluctuations of latitude and longitude values in time and space and distance, between seismic events occurred in a specific area
Analysis of the pattern and trend, which represent the fluctuation of events and distances between pairs of earthquakes, has allowed us to localize the epicentral area of a future earthquake, which more reliably complements the other forecasting methods we have developed in the past
The detailed analysis of whole seismic sequences shows that earthquakes do not occur in a totally random manner, but often tend to cluster both in space and time [16] at all levels of magnitude forming a seismic cluster characterized by a directional trend that allows to identify the epicenter of a future strong earthquake
Summary
Short-term prediction of the epicenter of a future earthquake is an important feature for seismic hazard mitigation by opening the possibility of preventing considerable damage. Observations related to the fluctuations of seismicity related to time and space can provide important information for determining the location of a future strong earthquake in the short term For this purpose, retrospective analysis of the epicenters of aftershocks can be used to improve estimates of the epicenter of short-term strong earthquakes. The detailed analysis of whole seismic sequences shows that earthquakes do not occur in a totally random manner, but often tend to cluster both in space and time [16] at all levels of magnitude forming a seismic cluster characterized by a directional trend that allows to identify the epicenter of a future strong earthquake. Analyses were performed with the experimental software “Previsio”-Epicenter section made by the authors
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