Methodology to generate earthquake-tsunami fragility surfaces for community resilience modeling

Abstract

Community resilience analysis and performance-based tsunami design methods typically use separate fragility curves for earthquake and near-field tsunami hazards to predict damage, neglecting the direct cascading effects of the earthquake damage on the subsequent tsunami damage analysis for coastal communities. This paper presents an improved two-phase successive analysis that can incorporate the most significant sources of uncertainties in structural modeling and hazards. However, generating multi-hazard 3D fragility surfaces that fully incorporate uncertainties through Monte Carlo Simulation requires millions of successive nonlinear analyses, which can be computationally intensive. To address this issue, a multi-distributed and parallel processing architecture was used and summarized herein. This methodology has been applied to a 4-story RC building as an illustrative example and demonstrated to be highly efficient and scalable in generating near-continuous fragility surfaces for earthquake and tsunami hazards, reducing the expected computational time by over 98%. Due to their near-continuous characteristic, these surfaces are easier to implement in resilience frameworks and applications. The fragility surfaces also feature earthquake-only and tsunami-only 2D fragility curves along the intensity measure axis boundaries, making them versatile for use in resilience frameworks that focus on a single hazard or both earthquake and tsunami hazards. Therefore, the proposed method is scalable making it helpful in developing fragility models for building portfolios to be used at the community resilience modeling of full coastal cities.