Methodology to develop endemic channels and notification trends for dengue in Valle del Cauca, Colombia, 2009-2013.

Abstract

Dengue is the fastest spreading disease in the world and a permanent threat to global public health. It is a viral illness for which approximately 2.5 million people are at high risk of infection. Given the severity of the disease at national and global levels, new predictive methodologies need to be generated to facilitate decision-making in public health. To characterize cases of dengue reported from 2009 to 2013 in Valle del Cauca department, Colombia, and to establish a methodology to develop endemic channels that can be applied to this event. This was a retrospective descriptive study. Notification forms were used as a secondary database to characterize dengue cases from 2009 to 2013. Two endemic channels were developed, one using running means and the other through exponential smoothing. Dengue in the department of Valle del Cauca showed a positive tendency, indicating that the number of cases had increased in the last five years. An important variation was observed that could be explained by a three-year cycle beginning in the first epidemiological period of the year. The development of the dengue endemic channel for Valle del Cauca illustrates the importance of applying these monitoring methodologies to events of public health interest. As can be seen from the results, there were some years in which the number of cases was very low and others in which the epidemic reached very high levels.