Methodology of Effective Application of Economic-Mathematical Modeling as the Key Component of the Multi-Crisis Adaptive Management

Abstract

Abstract. Introduction. The modern economy is characterized not only by processes of increasing globalization and competition in markets, mobility and internationalization of resources, rapid development of innovative information technologies, but also by rapid spread of crisis phenomena in the middle and between national economies - all these factors put forward new requirements for effective corporate management [1, 2]. Purpose. Thus, for the sake of stability, not only in the current global market competition, but especially in the context of multi-level crisis phenomena [3], all efficient companies (including logistic) should be able to adapt quickly and efficiently to changes, i.e., they must be systemically adaptive with using economic and mathematical modeling of crisis program, forecasting the results of crisis management. Results. The two main groups of results will provide an adequate, systemic multi-modal response to a variety of crisis events and situations. The process of assembling and configuring the elements of the crisis program (plan) is inherently an open, heuristic, intellectual process of making managerial decisions and scenarios. The intellectual and professional abilities of the manager (specialist, auditor, controller) performing this task play a significant role in the development and implementation of effective crisis management plans and programs. This determines the importance of the personal factor and experience in preparing for decision-making in open problems, determines the requirements for the selection and organization of work in the ad-hoc mode of internal and external experts ( auditors, controllers). However, a study of the management practice of logistics companies in emerging markets (especially in the context of the current global pandemic) showed a significant and negative potential impact of subjective factors on decisions of the management of logistics companies, their auditors and controllers (cheating, corruption, raiding, inattention, industrial espionage, etc.). To limit the influence of the above subjective factors, the authors conducted research in the field of economic and mathematical modeling on two main tasks: development of a methodology and model for the formation of a crisis plan for a logistics company in the context of a possible multi-level crisis and development of methodology and improvement of models for predicting the results of a possible implementation of an crisis three-level adaptive program for a logistics company, taking into account the influence of the current multi-level crisis features and conditions. The results obtained can be used by logistics companies on emerging markets of developing countries and under the influence of similar political, macroeconomic and pandemic crisis phenomena (for example, including many countries in Africa, most countries in Eastern Europe, some countries of Latin America, some countries in the Middle East, and some countries in Southeast Asia). Conclusions. The obtained results are relevant and applicable not only for local logistic companies, but also for international applications in the context of projected glo bal macroeconomic and current national crisis phenomena.