Abstract
This work introduces a methodology for assessing near-future fire weather pattern changes based on the Canadian Fire Weather Index system components (Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI), Fire Severity Rating (FSR)), applied in touristic areas in Greece. Four series of daily raster-based datasets for the fire seasons (May–October), concerning a historic (2006 to 2015) and a future climatology period (2036–2045), were created for the areas under consideration, based on high-resolution climate modelling with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), PCR 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The climate model data were obtained from the European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) climate database and consisted of atmospheric variables as required by the FWI system, at 12.5 km spatial resolution. The final datasets of the abovementioned variables used for the study were processed at 5 km spatial resolution for the domain of interest after applying regridding based on the nearest neighbour interpolating process. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial operations, including spatial statistics and zonal analyses, were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output thematic layers. Moreover, historic FWI percentile values, which were estimated for Greece in the frame of a past research study of the Environmental Research Laboratory (EREL), were used as reference data for further evaluation of future fire weather changes. The straightforward methodology for the assessment of the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of Fire weather Danger due to climate change presented herewith is an essential tool for enhancing the knowledge for the decision support process for forest fire prevention, planning and management policies in areas where the fire risk both in terms of fire hazard likelihood and expected impact is quite important due to human presence and cultural prestige, such as archaeological and tourist protected areas.
Highlights
Fire plays an important role in ecosystems structure and function in forested and non-forested lands worldwide and in the Mediterranean region as well, where the climate favours noticeable ecological diversity and wildland fire occurrence
The current study aims at the provision of indicators and methodological tools for the quantitative assessment of fire weather in “Areas of Interest (AoI)”, applicable in any geographical region, that can be considered as distinctive units in terms of all levels of fire management
The analysis described above, is proposed as a methodology for the provision of information for all the areas of interest (AoI), in order to study the various perspectives of fire weather due to climate change
Summary
Fire plays an important role in ecosystems structure and function in forested and non-forested lands worldwide and in the Mediterranean region as well, where the climate favours noticeable ecological diversity and wildland fire occurrence. Forests 2020, 11, 1168 risk management a major concern and priority This need emanates from the fact that wildfire activity is projected to increase under future climate conditions and in conjunction with ongoing land use change, forest fires are becoming a reoccurring hazard of forested landscapes globally, posing significant risks to local and regional communities [3,4]. For the prediction of wildfire occurrence, the factors considered include meteorological data [8,9] and physical indices from fire-danger rating systems [9,10]. Such prediction forms the basis for costly wildfire pre-suppression activities, such as aircraft fire detection flights and pre-fire distribution of firefighting means [11]
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