Methodology for mapping the probability of fire occurrence in the Brazilian cerrado biome based on the danger of fire propagation variables

Marcos César Ferreira,Cassiano Gustavo Messias

doi:10.14195/1647-7723_29-1_8

Marcos César Ferreira, Cassiano Gustavo Messias

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https://doi.org/10.14195/1647-7723_29-1_8

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Abstract

The area covered by the Brazilian cerrado biome has been greatly reduced in recent years due to the expansion of agricultural land and the increased number of fire outbreaks. The objective of this paper is to propose a methodology based on geospatial analysis and logistic regression analysis (LRA) for mapping the probability of fire occurrence in Brazilian cerrado conservation units. This model was applied in the Serra da Canastra National Park (SCNP) in the Southeast of Brazil. The methodology uses the maps of the following environmental variables, which are related to the danger of fire propagation: wind effect (WIN), terrain convexity (CVX), slope (SLO), drainage density (DRD), altitude (ELV), vegetation index (NDVI), and road density (ROD). The results of the LRA showed that the variables SLO, ELV, NDVI, ROD (p<0.0001), DRD (p=0.0005) and WIN (p=0.0007) contributed significantly to the occurrence of fire outbreaks. The model correctly classified 94.26% of cases. We conclude that this methodology can be used to inform the planning of firefighting actions in the Brazilian cerrado biome.

Highlights

Fire is a major cause of forest destruction and biodiversity loss in Brazilian biomes, especially in the Brazilian cerrado biome
The methodology uses the maps of the following environmental variables, which are related to the danger of fire propagation: wind effect (WIN), terrain convexity (CVX), slope (SLO), drainage density (DRD), altitude (ELV), vegetation index (NDVI), and road density (ROD)
The model for mapping the probability of fire occurrence is based on the following environmental variables, which are related to the danger of fire propagation: wind effect (WIN), terrain convexity (CVX), slope (SLO), drainage density (DRD), altitude (ELV), vegetation index (NDVI) and road density (ROD)

Summary

Introduction

Fire is a major cause of forest destruction and biodiversity loss in Brazilian biomes, especially in the Brazilian cerrado biome. The area covered by Brazilian cerrado vegetation has been greatly reduced in recent years due 90 to the expansion of agricultural land and the increased number of fire outbreaks. Given the current vulnerability of Brazilian forests, the development of geospatial models to map the probability of fire occurrence is an important scientific goal. Fires in the Brazilian cerrado biome have been occurring for 32,000 years, and they propagate on the surface vegetation of the herbaceous stratum (Miranda et al, 2004). All plants of the Brazilian cerrado have evolved to tolerate or depend on fire for their existence (Coutinho, 1990); fires are integrated into the ecosystems of this biome (Conti and Furlan, 2011)

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