METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING EMERGENCY SITUATIONS IN RISK CITY CITIES

Abstract

In order to reduce the number of emergencies and losses from their occurrence on the basis of forecasting, it is possible to develop and implement appropriate measures in advance that would prevent their occurrence. But at the present stage there is no such methodology that would allow forecasting of emergencies in cities, including fires. Therefore, to solve this problem, the task is to develop developed methodologies for predicting emergencies in cities, including fires.
 The goal of the work. Develop a methodology for determining the risk of emergencies in the city.
 In order to achieve this goal, the following tasks should be solved: 1) zoning the city area with consideration of potentially dangerous objects, high-risk objects and objects of strategic importance for the economy and security of the state; 2) to identify areas with appropriate degrees of risk of emergencies; 3) develop a methodology for determining the risk of emergencies; 4) to develop appropriate measures to eliminate possible emergencies at the facilities.
 To solve these problems, they used, as an example, a map of the location of objects of the Lviv Railway District. The total area of the district is 29.64 km2. The total area was divided into 25 squares, each 1.1856 km2. These squares include potentially dangerous objects, high risk objects, and objects that are of strategic importance for the economy and security of the state. Analyzing the risks of emergencies at the facilities in the railway districts of Lviv, it was found that these medium- and high-risk facilities occupy approximately 52% of the total area of the territory. A similar situation occurs in other areas of Lviv. The results of the analysis for other cities of Ukraine showed that, for example, for the cities of Dnipro and Mariupol, these risks for economic entities by city area are approximately 50… 65%. A methodology for determining the risk of emergencies at city facilities has been developed, based on the provisions of theories of probability and reliability for failure of elements of operation of city objects that can lead to emergencies, as well as appropriate measures to eliminate possible emergencies in the city. economic acts.
 Conclusions and specific suggestions:
 
 A methodology for determining the risks of emergencies at business entities has been developed, which makes it possible to perform the forecast of emergencies and to take appropriate measures to prevent them.
 To determine the risks of emergencies, we propose a method for establishing the law of distribution of failures of structural elements of an object that pose a threat to its occurrence. Such distribution laws include exponential, Weibull, Rayleigh and normal.
 The methodology developed needs to be further refined in order to implement and use it on the basis of information technologies, which will allow to take all necessary measures in an operational mode to ensure the elimination of possible emergencies in the facilities.