Methodology for describing the whole process to accident based on entropy increase principle and Darwin’s Natural Selection

Abstract

The whole process to an accident contains three components including power, origin, and intermediate. Existing accident models always fail to explore the process well. In this paper, a system is considered to be powered by the nature of spontaneous disorder determined by Entropy Increase Principle. The origin is identified as social factors through reviewing the literature regarding hierarchical levels of accident causes. Intermediate is elaborated within the framework of Darwin’s Natural Selection. In intermediate, each type of unsafe factors have to struggle with both other unsafe factors and 10 types of safe factors. The unsafe factors which fail to be controlled before an accident occurs must have at least one of variations including latency, mildness, and tendency when they evolve every time. Finally, based on a case study, a comparison is made with Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. The results from that demonstrates the advantages of the proposed accident model.