Abstract

Prognostic is central to manufacturing and infrastructure management. The development of new methods for determining the residual resource of equipment is an important task aimed at increasing the efficiency of using industrial electrical complexes. Solving the problem of reliably determining the state of power equipment in the mining and metallurgical complex makes it possible to move from an outdated system of scheduled preventive maintenance to maintenance based on the current state of the unit. Complex technical systems are characterized by complex nonlinear interactions between their constituent elements, complex scenarios of cause-and-effect relationships between hazardous, probabilistic events and processes occurring during their operation. Therefore, methods and tools are being developed to assess and manage wear mechanisms in high-risk industries. The sources of information in the systems of technical diagnostics and control of technological processes are measuring transducers (sensors) of physical quantities. Using information from sensors and real-time operational diagnostics, the operator can predict the occurrence of malfunctions, equipment failures and process disturbances, which reduces downtime of process equipment and the occurrence of emergency situations. The article presents the results related to the development of a methodology for assessing the residual life of industrial equipment. The methodology uses probabilistic mathematical methods to predict the remaining service life and information collected during audits and equipment monitoring. Along with the classical methods, methods are presented based on the use of the entire potential of the modern element base of microprocessor technology and technologies for the use of artificial neural networks, machine learning, "big data".

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