Abstract
The article examines the current state of the bread and bakery market in Ukraine on the basis of the exponential smoothing method. An important aspect of the analysis of the bakery industry state is the issue of pricing for the number one product in Ukraine – bread and bakery products. The purpose of this study was to analyze the level of bread prices in the regional context, to identify trends and factors influencing them and to propose models on the basis of which it is advisable to make operational forecasts of bread prices. The study was performed on the basis of monitoring data of average consumer prices for wheat bread from first grade flour by months of 2017 and 2018 in the selected regions, Kyiv and Ukraine as a whole. The choice of areas is done due to their territorial location, and the choice of bread type – due to steady popularity among consumers. The dynamics of product prices, in particular in the regional aspect, was analyzed. The example of wheat bread made from first grade flour shows significant differences in the price level for these products by regions. Trends in price changes and their dependence on such factors as the price of flour, the price of gasoline A-95, wages have been identified. The expediency of using for the estimation of bread prices of models based on series of dynamics by exponential smoothing is shown. High accuracy of the received models is confirmed. The proposed approach in this study can be used by industry to construct models of product price forecasting as a benchmark for making management decisions about the real price. Performing these calculations online on a computer will provide businesses with particular advantages over their competitors, as well as the ability to plan their economic performance at the desired level
Highlights
According to Food and Agriculture Organization, in December 2019, the food price index reached a maximum of 181.7 in the last 5 years
Performing these calculations online on a computer will provide businesses with particular advantages over their competitors, as well as the ability to plan their economic performance at the desired level
This paper examines the processes of changing the price of bread and bakery products (HBB) on the basis of the exponential smoothing method
Summary
According to Food and Agriculture Organization, in December 2019, the food price index reached a maximum of 181.7 in the last 5 years. Price increases are associated with changes in oil prices [1; 3; 4,5,6,7]. For some types of products, here are recent articles on coffee price forecasts [9], soybean oil, fish and vegetables, on red chili peppers [10], using the ARIMA Models. Skvarciany [11], based on monthly data on retail prices of foodstuffs of the Lithuanian market for 2016-2018, substantiated the high efficiency of multiple regression models for forecasting prices for butter, eggs and rye bread. In the bread model, the retail price of rye bread is influenced by the volumes of bread produced, the volume of exports, the purchasing power (monthly average salary in the country) and the yield of rye. An important aspect of the analysis of the bakery industry state is the issue of pricing for the number one product in Ukraine – bread and bakery products (BBP)
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