Abstract
Complexity of the agricultural business tasks, high dynamism and non-linear nature of the contemporary socio-economic processes which differs functioning of any industry are placing new requirements for predictive studies. The purpose of this study is to develop a set of methodological provisions for the construction of predictive scenarios of the agricultural business by identifying current trends, the impact factors of the environment and the interpretation of results forecasting and analytical calculations. This article considers the influence of climatic factors on the economic impact of the frumentaceous and the grape branches of agriculture. The system of economic and mathematical prognostics models of the main industrial indicators was developed. The methodology for scenario forecasting of indicators of frumentaceous production and vine growing was proposed based on the use of the influence of solar activity on agrobiological processes.
Highlights
Today a variety of mathematical models is use to predict the performance of the agricultural business
In our opinion the forecast scenarios for the development of viticulture and grain production are models of the future state of the agricultural business, describing the likely direction of development, taking into account the impact of the major factors of predictive environment, which may have a significant impact on the future status of both individual businesses and business as a whole (Bannikova, 2004)
Studies in the field of teaching of the forecasting trends basics in the industry of Agribusiness allow us to make the following conclusions: 1) The terms of forecasting in agricultural business are substantially different from this kind of activity in other sectors of the economy and are characterized by specific features, based on the laws of its development, the need of developing specific approaches for using of prognostic tools
Summary
Today a variety of mathematical models is use to predict the performance of the agricultural business. Because of the complexity of the investigated phenomena, usually chronological heterogeneity of information sets, the duration of the study period, and the changes in trends in its different parts is nigh on impossible to adequately describe the actual processes of agrarian business only through the use of a single, quite difficult mathematical model. Here it should be kept in mind as the modeling of individual indicators of the agricultural business as their totality. To obtain simulation results having sufficiently high accuracy, it is expedient to use some system of mathematical models, having sufficient flexibility and adaptability to changes in both the modeling object and its environment
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