Method To Assess Results Of Strategic Projects On Regional Human Capital Development

Abstract

Uncertainties, risks, and limited resources create a problem of optimum distribution of the available funds between strategic projects that influence the development of human capital in the region to maximize their results. The goal of this research is to develop a mathematical economic assessment method for the efficiency of strategic projects that directly or indirectly influence the development of human capital in a region in terms of their influence on the social and economic development. We suggest a model based on formalized influence channels. It is a two-level system of econometric dependencies. The first-level dependencies describe the influence of investment in regional human capital on the region's human capital development indicators. The second level reflects the influence of the regions’ human capital development indicators on its social and economic development. The weighted change of the region's social and economic development indicators as a result of aggregate investment in a specific project over the set planning horizon was used as an efficiency criterion. The research is based on the statistics from official data sources. The produced database contains indicator values obtained in the regions of Russia over 2011-2018. We present an example of efficiency assessment for three identical strategic projects from two regions of Russia, the Primorsky territory and Belgorod Oblast. This example shows that the region's specifics have a significant influence on its social and economic development depending on the type of investment in the development of human capital.