Method Research of Earthquake Prediction and Volcano Prediction in Italy

Lijun Chen,Lei Shao,Xiaofeng Chen

doi:10.4236/ijg.2015.69076

Abstract

This paper adopts the earthquake catalogue of the European Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), in accordance with the principles of Seismo-Geothermics Theory and the concept of seismic cone; it discusses the integrity of the earthquake catalogue and the overview of Mediterranean seismic cones; it focuses on the structural details and structural feature of the Italian branch of the Mediterranean seismic cone; it deduces the precursory process of subcrustal earthquake activities before two earthquakes magnitude over 6 and the eruptions of Etna volcano since 2005; then it summarizes the prediction working method of Seismo-Geothermics on estimating the general shell strength, the general period, and the rough location of future earthquake or volcano activities; and finally it discusses and explains some possible problems. The principle and working process of this method were testified in card No. 0419 in 2012, the author’s prediction card, which can apply to predict for intracrustal strong earthquakes and volcano activities within the global twenty four seismic cones. The purpose of this paper is to develop the tools and methods of the prediction of future earthquake and volcano.

Highlights

Earthquake prediction and volcano prediction are scientific problems recognized worldwide
It has been believed that seismic energy mainly depends on the strain energy accumulation of crustal tectonic movement; in the world, more than 95% of intracrustal strong earthquakes and more than 85% of active volcanoes happen within the twenty four seismic cones [5], suggesting that there is a close relationship between intracrustal strong earthquake and seismic activity in the deep
There is a world class seismological observation data in Mediterranean region, and the opportunities of earthquake prediction research in Italy, Greece, Turkey may be able to bring a new hope to the human being

Summary

Introduction

Earthquake prediction and volcano prediction are scientific problems recognized worldwide. Using this method, the author presented a prediction card of global crust strong earthquakes (coastal above magnitude 7 and inland magnitude above 6.5 or 6) and volcanoes within the future three years on April 19, 2012 to the relevant government departments. In this paper, using the European Mediterranean Seismographic Centre (EMSC) earthquake catalogue and taking the Italian seismic cone as an example, the authors studied the spatial distribution image of Italian Seismic Cone, the earthquake focal depth sequence diagram, deduction of intracrustal strong earthquake prediction, the relationship between the monthly frequency of seismic activity in pillar and volcano eruption, and made a clear summary and explanation of the prediction method, hoping to contribute to the method research of future earthquake and volcano

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Conclusion