Abstract
In the analysis of the readiness of means of transport, the Markov and semi-Markov processes are particularly applicable, allowing for the description of the usage process over long periods of time, determination of indicators of the exploitability and readiness of the used set of objects, as well as simulation of long-term forecasts of the usage process results. The studies presented in the literature usually concern the theoretical side of the matter, mainly the construction of formal models of the process of changing the operating states of a vehicle. Less attention is paid to the empirical side, especially with regard to the actual conditions of use. Examples of experimental observations presented in the literature most often concern individual cases. This paper lists selected irregularities and presents an example of a study of a real transport system based on semi-Markov processes.
Highlights
Markov and semi-Markov models are used, when the analysed states occur at random moments (Buchholz et al 2018)
This paper presents the way of estimating semi-Markov model parameters on the basis of actual observations obtained from the transport company, which allowed for diagnostics and evaluation of the company in terms of its readiness
States S6 and S7 related to repair and overhaul activities may need to be investigated. They account for more than 20% in total and, as unfit states, have a strong influence on the technical readiness factor, which is determined as the sum of the respective probabilities of the reliability states (Rymarz et al 2016)
Summary
Markov and semi-Markov models are used, when the analysed states (failures, deterioration, service) occur at random moments (Buchholz et al 2018). Actual structures are not popular, and those that deserve attention include (Love et al 2000; Restel 2014; Woropay et al 2004; Żurek, Tomaszewska 2016) This indicates the need to present methods for modelling such systems using Markov processes, which is addressed by this paper. Goodness of fit of empirical data to the parametric distribution is presented, among others, in papers by Van Casteren et al (2000) – Weibull distribution, Li et al (2010) – Poisson distribution, Rydén et al (1998) – double exponential distribution It happens, though, that only the assumption concerning the form of distributions is made, while the choice of the model is justified by the accuracy of the results obtained. This paper presents the way of estimating semi-Markov model parameters on the basis of actual observations obtained from the transport company, which allowed for diagnostics and evaluation of the company in terms of its readiness
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