Method for modelling fluctuating energy generation plants for the assessment of their impact on medium and low voltage grids

Abstract

This paper describes a method for taking the forecasting uncertainty into account when assessing the impact of volatile generation on power grids. To this end the generation of feed-in scenarios for generation plants that include the uncertainty of the weather forecast is described. With a three-step model that firstly forecasts local weather parameters and, secondly, generates scenarios for these parameters, thirdly, a reduced number of resulting feed-in profile scenarios for each plant is computed. With these scenarios the assessment of the grid-impact of the plants can be calculated taking into account the uncertainty of the prognosis. In a case study, feed-in profiles for the plants in an exemplary region are generated which can be used for an assessment of the grid impact in this region using probabilistic load flow calculation.